Monday, December 8, 2014

France: Pyrrhic Palestinian victory may accelerate a pro-Israel reaction

Pollsters say the that the leftwing National Assembly that recognized Palestine is already dead.

Just like the House of Commons a bit earlier, the French National Assembly voted on December 2 a seemingly overwhelming but in fact inconsequential resolution calling for the recognition of the State of Palestine. Indeed, the resolution won by a large margin: 339 to 151. But there is very little substance about it, either in constitutional or political terms. It may even accelerate a pro-Israel reaction both in France and in the European Union at large. [...]

The political angle is a bit more complex. Still it leads to a similar conclusion: the resolution is a non-starter. It has been essentially supported by the current Left majority in the National Assembly (a coalition of socialists, quasi-socialists, neocommunists and Greens, who garners 343 seats out of 577), whereas the conservative opposition (225 seats) opposed it or abstained. However, the legitimacy of the Left-dominated National Assembly is eroding at smart pace. [...]

Indeed, the unravelling of the French Left may be the key to an intriguing paradox: why in the world did the parliamentary Left insist for a foreign policy resolution that the governing Left had no intention to implement? Dogmatism may be at stake : supporting the State of Palestine, whatever that means and even if it might turn into an Islamic State of Palestine, is just part of the Left and Far Left mantras worldwide.

A further explanation may be that the Left’s last hope to survive in the coming election is to garner as much support as possible from the immigrant Muslim community, which will provide an average 5 to 10% of the vote. Finally, Hollande and Valls are so unpopular by now among their own consistuency that the entire socialist and leftwing political class needs to distance from them on almost all issues, either domestic or international. Sarkozy, who was elected on November 30 as the new chairman of the conservative UMP party, an important step for being relected as president in 2017, campaigned against the Palestine resolution: a point that will not be lost to pro-Israel voters in the future, nor to a growing number of voters, both on the Right and the Left, that are concerned with the rise of jihadism in Europe as well as in the Middle East. Sarkozy’s main rivals among the conservatives, Alain Juppé and François Fillon, both of them former prime ministers, did not take part in the ballot: they had previously supported the socialist resolution. This too will not be easily forgotten.

The two National Front members of the National Assembly abstained; but one of them, barrister Gilbert Collard, delivered beforehand a passionately pro-Israel speech on November 28. While the National Front’s old guard is seen as «anti-Zionist», its new supporters are generally pro-Israel. In a rare instance of circumstancial convergence, Meyer Habib, the centrist representative for the 8th French Expatriates District (Italy, Israel and other Eastern Mediterranean countries), heartily applauded Collard’s speech.

More: Michel Gurfinkiel

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